By Dr. Bunmi Awoyemi
President Buhari, a Northerner was President for 8 yrs. Power shifted to the South via President Tinubu in 2023.
PDP is likely to field Atiku Abubakar again in 2027. Unfortunately for Atiku, his candidacy negates the principle of power rotation and will make his candidacy dead on arrival. The south should govern till 2031, then power can then shift back to the North.
The Labor Party is likely to field Peter Obi again.
Rabiu Kwankwaso will either run for President again under NNPP and win only Kano again or back President Bola Tinubu for President in order to deliver Kano to him and deprive Atiku of Kano. The chances of Kwankwaso backing someone else who is not an incumbent President if he is not running eventually is extremely slim.
If it plays out like this, which is more likely than not, Tinubu is likely to win by a wider margin in 2027.
Southwest and Northeast will go to Tinubu, except Adamawa.
He will sweep the South West, and sweep the Northeast with his current VP still on the joint ticket, except Adamawa State where Atiku comes from.
South South
With the help of Wike and Fubara, he will sweep Rivers State.
He will get GEJ, Silva and his Petroleum Minister’s backing and pick up Bayelsa State.
He will sweep Edo with Oshiomole’s help and the incumbent governor’s help.
He will win Cross Rivers with the help of the incumbent governor.
He will pick up Akwa Ibom with the help of Godswill Akpabio and other key political heavy weights from Akwa Ibom.
He will sweep Delta State because of what is happening with NNPC’s Warri Refinery.
Tinubu will pick up the entire North Central.
He will lose the Southeast again but by a lower margin. He will do far better in Anambra, Abia, Ebonyi and Enugu States where he will far exceed 25% of the valid votes cast and counted.
As for the Northwest, he might win Kano if Kwankwaso backs him.
He will win Kaduna hands down with the help of Uba Sani and some other key political figures in Southern Kaduna.
He has a very good chance of winning Kebbi State.
He will win in Katsina State because of ex-President Buhari’s influence.
He may lose to Atiku in Bauchi, Jigawa, Sokoto and Zamfara States.
As an incumbent who has the power of incumbency and also because of the high chance that the fruits of his political reforms and massive infrastructural projects would have reverberated across the country long before 2027, voters and political influencers and heavyweights would see him as a natural choice who will need four more years to continue the execution of the reforms and projects.
One of the things that will propel Tinubu to electoral triumph is that a lot of those who voted against him thought he lacked the capacity to transform Nigeria. The expectation of good performance was extremely low. His ability to perform and deliver on these ongoing reforms and infrastructural projects will win him millions of votes he lost to his opponents in 2023.
He is likely to get more than 50% of the votes in 2027, unlike in 2023. I am Dr. Bunmi Awoyemi and I approve this message.