Politics, at its core, is a game of numbers—driven by interests and played by those with stakes.
Defection, decamping, or cross-carpeting is part of that game. Think of it like football: coaches and players change clubs in pursuit of trophies, better pay, or fame. In politics, while ideology should be the guiding principle, in Nigeria, it’s often about personal gain, political dominance, and the hunger for power.
The interests of the electorate are usually secondary to those of the political elite. Political parties are merely vehicles—not destinations. So, if you’re not a politician, don’t be overly emotional about their defections. It’s part of the game. After all, you’re allowed to change your job if you’re no longer fulfilled, right? Politicians too have the right to change affiliations.
ON THE CURRENT WAVE OF DEFECTIONS IN NIGERIA
Expect more to come—across party lines, with coalitions and realignments looming.
This isn’t just about governance; it’s a build-up to 2027. Some may even call it an ethno-political war between the North and the South. The South is waking up, saying “our mumu don do,” while some in the North still hold the belief that nothing significant happens in Nigeria without their say. “Nobody becomes anything in Nigeria without the North,” they often say.
Consider the reforms igniting these tensions:
- Fuel subsidy removal
- Naira floatation
- Aggressive tax reforms
- Upcoming population census
- Proposed state creation (to address perceived imbalances)
- Regional development commissions (potentially birthing regional governance)
To some, these moves signal targeted attacks on a region. To others, they represent long-overdue steps toward equity and restructuring.
Another view attributes the defections to the survival instincts of politicians under pressure—facing intimidation or searching for political shelter.
WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT:
- More defections from Southern opposition states
- Deepening divisions across North and South lines
- Coordinated opposition to the current government from old power blocs and even foreign interests
- Surprises, betrayals, and shifting alliances
- A new style of election in 2027 shaped by strategic state control rather than the electorate’s vote
Having studied Nigeria’s political terrain, one thing is clear: state governments often influence state INEC, while the ruling party influences national INEC. Sadly, it’s no longer the voters who determine winners—it’s about who controls the most states.
So, don’t be shocked by defections. Your personal opinions of any administration—whether love or hate—have never single-handedly fixed Nigeria. Let’s instead focus on whether this era can address longstanding injustices and imbalances.
Awolowo, Azikiwe, Ojukwu, MNK, and others dreamt of a defining moment like this.
Don’t lose yourself in their war of defections. Watch, hope, and pray for a better Nigeria.
I come in peace.
Akilaiya Davidson
Writes from Abuja, Nigeria